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There were 4 important prep races this weekend, 2 for
fillies: The most important race this weekend for 3yo's was the FOY at Gulfstream. With $250K up for grabs, the two bettors' choices put on a good fight to the wire, with Read the Footnotes (2-1) taking out 2nd of June (3-2) by a neck in an exciting finish. As you can tell by the odds, there was no money to win on the $6.80 exacta or the $17 trifecta, considering 3rd choice Silver Wagon finished as he usually does, in 3rd. The trouble with this horse, as I mentioned in a previous article, is that his Wagon Limit is 8f. He will not be winning any stakes races above that distance, but could finish ITM every time. But let's talk about the champion. Like his sire Smoke Glacken, Read the Footnotes (heretofore RTF) is blessed with tremendous speed. Smoke Glacken is a sprint champion from Two Punch of the Mr. Prospector division of the RAN sireline. His crop's avg winning distance is 6.5f. So is this another sprinter trying to stretch his luck over 8f? NOT SO FAST my friend. RTF's damsire's crop has AWD of 8.4f. The stamina pedigree he picked up from this french mare easily explains why he's won 2 straight G2's at route. This combined with his RAN sireline makes it imperative that you bet him in the futures pools, and put in your ROTR stable (www.roadtotheroses.com). Although from a different sireline (Louis Quatorze of Native Dancer line), 2nd of June is a similar horse, posting the same speed figures the past 2 races, and has a similar early running style. His problem is that he cracked a bone apparently during the race, which may have been the only reason he lost. At any rate, he expects to be sidelined for about 3 months. El Prado Rob showed improvement, making a late move for 4th. The Medaglia D'oro half brother may have the same fate of peaking late in his 3yo year. The bottom line here is that RTF closed gamely for the win on a slow pace set by Frisky Spider and pressed by 2nd of June to win. Barring injury, he will be a factor the 1st Saturday of may at Churchill Downs. Hopefortheroses (75-1) was in last place at every call, and finished last. Gulfstream also ran a 7f Hutcheson and a couple of 3yo allowances that may turn out to be important. Limehouse (Grand Slam) won the Hutcheson as expected. Actually, some people thought Wynn Dot Comma would win since he was the chalk, and there were others with better speed figures recently. However, like I always say, it's all about RAN in these stakes races nowadays. Keep an eye on this one to see if he improves next time out and competes at route distances. He won this won with a strong move along the backturn to close on a torrid pace set by Deputy Storm, who held on for 2nd. The latter could be the 1 of the best sprinters this year if he learns how to not outrun himself. In the allowance division at Gulfstream today, Birdstone won the first race as a 1-5 favorite. No surprise there as he handily put away the field at 1M 70 yds. The only question here is, why wasn't he running in the FOY? What is Zito afraid of. The product of 1996 KY Derby champion Grindstone and a Storm Bird mare, looks like 1 of the best 3yo's of the year. In fact, he went off as the 2nd choice for Derby Pool 1 (well aside from the field) at 12-1 behind the other Zito colt Eurosilver at 11-1, who also hasn't raced against anybody this year. But he needs to race against the best so we can see if he's for real. Zito must have some master plan that we don't know about, trying to ease his horses into competition this year. He's loaded with his little RAN colts that post high speed figures. But he needs to get them into the major preps soon. In a 9f allowance later, Bailey drove Swingforthefences to a big 5L in over Pool 1 entry Shaniko. In the Silverbulletday stakes, Shadow Cast made a strong move to close on a slow pace to win the 8.5f race in unimpressive time against a weak field. More importantly, in the Las Virgenes, AP Indy filly AP Adventure showed off her form. The even money chalk turned on the jets on the stretch to pass tiring leader Friendly Michelle and hold off Hollywood Story in the mile race. Ridden by Solis, trained by Dollase and owned by Bob and Bev Lewis, this horse is shaping up to be a chief rival of the impeccably bred, overwhelming filly favorite Halfbridled. This filly is straight out of 1990 Derby Champ Unbridled, to a Deputy Minister mare. So far looks to be unbeatble. (watch it with that word!) Gradepoint won the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds, closing on a slow pace to pass favored Mr. Jester and fading Nightlifeatbigblue in the stretch. The late move gives this AP Indy colt some credibility, however the race wasn't that fast and his speed figure earned wasn't that great. Any horses in this race will need significant improvement to run for the roses. Last but not least, let's quickly look at the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1. We were all pleasantly surprised to find out on the 1st day that somebody laid down a $30k bet on the field. It was probably some rich idiot that thought he was getting locked in to odds of 4-1 or whatever they happened to be at the time. The great thing is it jacked up odds on the rest of the entries, giving each entry at least double digit odds! The field is usually a good bet, but not this year, and not at final odds of 9-5. Last year's Derby champ Funny Cide was in all 3 pools at odds varying around 50-1, so the field bet was useless. I have a feeling he's in this year's pool too. Here's my short list, in order:
I consider the 1st 4 on that list to be mandatory pool bets, given they're all at double digit odds. I mean, if you put $10 on each of them, and 1 of them won, you spent only $40 and won at least $110. The trick to this is to get your pool odds on these early. I guarantee on Derby day, all of those 4 if they're in, will have single digit odds, but in reality at least 1 of them will probably be injured or otherwise off the trail. Master David is this year's Empire Maker, meaning he'll have a great shot at winning the Derby, and 19-1 is way too high to pass up on. I also consider the next two to be frightening prospects also. Yes, I bet on the filly. She's a stronger play than most of the colts on the board. The last 2 need to show improvement at route to get anyone's attention, but I took a little flier on each anyway.
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