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There were 4 important prep races this weekend:
Mostly small stakes involved this weekend, none of these over 100k, and only 1 graded race (Baldwin) which is not even the most important. The Southwest always seems to be the biggest of the batch on this weekend, even tho the runners are seldom a factor the 1st weekend of may in Ky. Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality (Gone West) - I'll Get Along)) was the big RAN colt of the day, proving why he was the 1-2 favorite in rating close to an initially hot pace then fighting off Two-Down Automatic for the win. The latter, a Smoke Glacken RAN version, came from way off the pace to close a respectable 2nd. Finishing 3rd was Pro Prado, part of an entry of 3/4 brothers including Proper Prado. Both out of El Prado obviously and 2 different mares by Proper Reality. The only difference between these 2 is that Proper Prado is a lolligagger, the same one that finished out of the money. Most El Prado colts seem to be late bloomers, so keep an eye on them in the future. The one to remember here for KY is Smarty Jones, even though he's a frontrunner. The race I cashed in on was the Miracle Wood Stakes in Laurel. A lot of people were on this Capac's bandwagon, and he was definitely the prime power horse. Good horse, I thought, but having been unraced above 7f, I had no evidence to support him going the extra 1.5 furlongs. However, there was good reason to doubt his ability to achieve the route based on his sire's and dam's crops' stats. Anyway, he went off at ridiculous odds of 2-5 so there was another great reason to bet against him. I liked Water Cannon (7-2), because he was the 2nd best horse in the race, and had already won 2 at this distance; and Eastern Bay (8-1) because he had the post 1, and he's a RAN colt (Marquetry from Conquistador Cielo), and he also won 2 in a row at 8.5f. So I nailed the race with the best closer, Wanaka, finishing 3rd. A healthy trifecta was earned with Capac out of the money. There are very slim Derby hopes for that horse now. As for the others, with significant improvement they would be a factor in May. Using the same theory as above I went for the triple in the Battaglia also. I considered Little Matth Man to be a 1-race wonder with the chance for lightning to strike again. I cashed in on him on his last race, the Whirlaway, at odds of 10-1 when he was the only lolligagger in a field of speed. With plenty of early speed in this race, it looked like he could do some damage again. I also liked White Mountain Boy and Dancefortyniner (obviously a RAN colt from the 49er line). Silver Minister was again, an overhyped, overbet favorite at odds of 2-1. The strong Silver Deputy (Deputy Minister) colt had won at 1M his last time out, but I felt as an early runner with plenty of early challenging speed in the race, he'd have to take a back seat. Not so. He won impressively over Little Matth Man and White Mountain Boy. With the favorite winning, the trifecta wasn't that great, so not a big loss there. As for the other 2 races, I didn't bet on them but included the results charts. Probably not much to see there. This week's top 10 3yo horses are in my weekly TV presentation charts.
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