Alright first of all if you were reading DRF http://drf.com/news/article/52782.html to catch up on the Santa Catalina and Holy Bull, Mike Watchmaker doesn't make a lot of sense to me on this. But, you never know when handicappers are just trying to throw you off the trail.

If he thinks Santa Catalina winner St. Averil (St. Ballado (Halo)) was so unimpressive, then why did the race report below show him taking the lead after 2 wide turns? Also, how is 22.75-45.61 a dream pace for a horse that’s currently rated E6? It seems a fast pace like that would more likely cook him. I was very impressed that he held on with a good late move after staying within 2L of the torrid pace on the 3 and 4 w turns. That was a big step up in my opinion. Master David, who was 3^rd in the Catalina, looks like the horse to watch.  He is a Grand Slam (Gone West) colt from the famous Mr. Prospector division of the RAN line.  Well, you say, so was Came Home, and he seemed to have some distance limitations when it came to the classics.  The difference is that Master David’s dam Nadra came from Sadler’s Wells, a sire whose offspring’s average winning distance is 10.5 furlongs.  It looks like this horse wants more distance to win, and once they get him up to 9 furlongs you’ll see a big step up. As a late runner however, he will still need a pace to run at. The 10f Derby is still a long way off, but so far he looks cut out to make a strong late run in a classic.

And as far as the Holy Bull is concerned, I'll take a different angle there as well. Second of June did well in rating behind El Prado Rob's slow pace and taking over late in the race, but I see no impressive move there, more like just a consistent pace without tiring out. What would this colt do with the hot pace that St. Averil faced?  That's what I'd like to see. Contrary to Watchmaker, I think Silver Wagon has reached his Wagon Limit at about 8f. I thought before the race, and the results confirmed it, that he's just not cut out to be a router. There are no strong stamina figures in either his sire's or damsire's crops. Looks like he'll be a good 7-8f sprinter or miler, but forget about him for the classics. I still couldn't believe he was the post time chalk.  I like Friends Lake's (3rd place) potential, but like other AP Indy Colts, he'll probably be a late bloomer and come on strong in the Belmont.  Like I always say, AP Indy will never win the Derby.

To sum up the day's races, Master David looks like the true Derby competitor, and St. Averil looks very strong also. I would wait for Second of June to show improvement before jumping on that bandwagon.